On July 24^th, the State Council held a forum on real estate work. The meeting analyzed the status of the real estate market and deployed the key work of real estate in the next stage. On the whole, the forum gave clear policy guidance to the recent phenomenon of overheated house prices, which means that the policies in some cities with overheated house prices subsequently are inclined to be tightened.

In this regard, we have invited Yan Yuejin, Research Director of Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute for analysis。

1、List of cities：The comrades in charge from the People's Governments of 10 cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Shenyang, Chengdu, Ningbo and Changsha, attended the symposium. The list of such cities itself has a strong signal significance, i.e. which generally belong to the cities whose house prices rose rapidly in the first half of this year. Among them, for the four first-tier cities, there appeared a widespread phenomenon of the speculation of school district housing. For several other second-tier cities, such as Nanjing, Hangzhou and Chengdu, the phenomenon of "ten thousand people housing lottery" appeared. For Shenyang and Changsha, their amount of increase is also in the top 10 of National 70 Cities Price Index. Therefore, the purpose of participating in the forum for such cities is very clear, that is, the authority hopes to get to know the reasons for the overheated house prices in such cities, and also further promote the stability of the real estate market by the means of the management and control in such cities in the future.

2、Policy keynote：In fact, the forum stressed the four keynotes of regulation and control. The first is to adhere to the problem orientation, attach great importance to the new situation and new problems in the current real estate market, always tighten the string of real estate regulation and unswervingly promote the implementation of a long-term mechanism. From this kind of expression, it can be seen that the regulation and control of real estate cannot be loosened, and local governments must implement the content of regulation and control in principle. The second is to fully implement the main responsibility of the city government, respond and deal with problems quickly, and take targeted policies and measures in time. Such provisions require the governments at all levels to have sufficient sensitivity to the phenomenon of overheated house prices, and in the meanwhile, should timely introduce the relevant policies. The third is to strengthen market monitoring, make prompt, guidance and pre-warning to market abnormal changes in a timely manner, and accurately analyze the market situation. Such regulations also put forward more requirements for the follow-up local regulation and control, requiring all cities to accurately study the market and issue accurate policies. The fourth is to continue to rectify the chaos in the real estate market, and effectively investigate and deal with illegal acts in accordance with the law. This kind of policy also makes clear that in the second half of the year, it is a necessity to continue to complete real estate order control, that is, the real estate transaction order cannot be disrupted.

3、Control tools：As can be seen from this symposium, several regulatory tools have been identified. The first is to implement the prudent management system of real estate finance, stabilize the inventory, strictly control the increment, and prevent the illegal inflow of funds into the real estate market. The implication of such provisions is that the real estate financial market is expected to be tightened in the second half of the year. Both development loans and personal mortgage loans are likely to face the risks of the tightening of the amount and the slowing down of the lending pace, which is what real estate enterprises and individual buyers need to concern. The second is t pay close attention to the establishment of residential land market monitoring index system, regularly disclose the progress of land reserve and transferred-land construction in various regions, and accept social supervision. From such provisions,  it can be seen that in the future, the land supply should be actively supported, especially for some cities with tightening housing supply. The third is to give full play to the role of fiscal and tax policies to effectively regulate housing demand. Similar regulations may mean that such cities subsequently will issue policies in terms of finance and taxation, such as levying relevant taxes and fees for "buying and selling quickly", etc., so as to increase the cost of real estate speculation. The fourth is to complete housing security, promote the transformation of old urban residential areas and shantytowns according to local conditions, and strive to solve the housing problems of new urban residents and young people. This content can be considered as long-term regulatory mechanism-oriented, in fact, which is also to resolve all kinds of housing problems from the perspective of housing security.

4、Policy prediction：It should be said that the holding of this forum shows that some new situations have actually emerged under the epidemic situation this year. Housing prices in some cities have risen instead of falling, which is beyond the market expectation. It is expected that there will be several policy performances in the second half of the year. First, the cities participating in the forum are expected to tighten the follow-up policies, especially those that have not issued policies recently. Second, other cities in the country will not loosen easily in terms of policy relaxation or at least carefully evaluate the market situation on the basis of prudence. Third, the policies will be tightened in the related fields, especially in banking and financial sectors. The development trend is predicted to change in the second half of the year.