Liu Quan Strategic Research Center

 In accordance with the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3220.4 billion yuan in July 2020 , a year-on-year decline of 2.7%. The growth rate of social consumption has been negative for six consecutive months. According to Liu Quan, the epidemic prevention and control is getting better with obvious economic recovery. In the second quarter, the GDP grew by 3.2% year on year. The hardly hit foreign trade exports and sluggish social consumption lead to the fuzzy  economic development in the future. It has been more than 20 years since the national housing prices constantly went up. Driven by the interests of the real estate market, it is quite common for people to buy houses once they have money. With regard to a continuous negative growth in social consumption, people prefer to buy houses for investment.

In accordance with the survey data of China Index Academy, in July 2020, the average transaction price of new commercial housing in 100 large and medium-sized cities in China was 15,526 yuan/square meter, up 0.46% month on month and 3.2% year on year. According to Liu Quan, economic development has been severely impacted by the spread of the epidemic, while the real estate market has shown super resilience. The real estate regulation policies in first - and second-tier cities have been tightened since July, curbing the sharp rise in housing prices in some cities. The real estate market in third - and fourth-tier cities, meanwhile, maintains in a relatively stable state, and the housing price shows a mixed situation. Home prices across the country have soft-landed, which means that no expectation of plummet should be hold by anyone.

In accordance with the Central Bank, the financial statistics released in July shows that in July 2020, loans to household sectors increased by 757.8 billion yuan. Among others, 151.1 billion yuan for short-term loans and 606.7 billion yuan for medium - and long-term loans. Liu Quan said that mortgage is the main component of household debt, and 77.8 percent of households with debt have housing loans and the overall household sector mortgage balance is of 38.6 trillion yuan in China. The real estate industry being relatively capital-intensive, both real estate developers and home buyers need the support of continuous easy credit policies from Banks. Otherwise, It is likely to shrink in he housing market.

According to Liu Quan, the rising housing prices should not simply attribute to market, which is also a issue resulting from profit distribution. The general rule of nationwide housing price rise shows that the housing price rises first in the first and second-tier cities while falls first in the third and fourth-tier cities. As population is the main factor driving social and economic development, it also plays a key role in the changes of urban housing prices. A large influx of migrants ensures the soaring house prices. The lifeblood of economic development, including economic growth, local fiscal revenue and financial market stability, all lays on the real estate industry. If the pattern of interest in the real estate market can hardly be broken for a long time,  the trend of rising house prices will also be rarely reversed. (The content and opinions expressed herein represent personal opinions but not advice for market trading or investment.)